Official investor-education pages for the US, UK, Australia, Canada, India and New Zealand on portfolios, bonds and tax-advantaged accounts, plus the Bogleheads wiki. Listed, not scored. We score videos (VettedVids score), books (Book Rating) and channels (Channel Rating).
Investor.gov — Asset allocation, bonds and company filings
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
Best for: Plain-English US explainers on setting an asset mix, rebalancing, how bond prices react to interest rates, and reading a company's annual report.
Who writes it: The SEC's Office of Investor Education and Advocacy, part of the US securities regulator.
Caution: US-specific: account types, tax references and examples (Treasuries, 10-K filings) apply to the United States.
Beginners' Guide to Asset Allocation, Diversification, and Rebalancing · Investor Bulletin: Fixed Income Investments — When Interest Rates Go Up, Prices of Fixed-Rate Bonds Fall · How to Read a 10-K · Beginners' Guide to Financial Statements (SEC.gov)
FINRA — Bonds, ETFs and asset allocation
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA)
Best for: Short explainers on asset allocation and diversification, how bonds work, what duration means for a bond fund, and how ETFs are structured.
Who writes it: FINRA investor education staff.
Caution: US-focused. FINRA is the US broker-dealer self-regulatory organisation, so content is framed around US brokerage accounts.
Asset Allocation and Diversification · Bonds · Brush Up on Bonds: Interest Rate Changes and Duration · Exchange-Traded Funds and Products
IRS — IRAs, 401(k) plans and capital gains
Internal Revenue Service (IRS)
Best for: The official rules for US tax-advantaged retirement accounts, including yearly contribution limits, and how capital gains and losses are taxed when selling.
Who writes it: The US federal tax agency.
Caution: US-only, and written as tax guidance rather than investment education. Limits change each year.
Individual retirement arrangements (IRAs) · 401(k) plans · Retirement topics - IRA contribution limits · Topic no. 409, Capital gains and losses
TreasuryDirect — TIPS and I bonds
U.S. Department of the Treasury
Best for: How the US government's inflation-protected securities work: TIPS principal rises and falls with inflation, and the I bond rate resets every six months based on inflation.
Who writes it: The issuer: the US Treasury's official site for buying and holding Treasury securities.
Caution: US government securities only. The site is also where these securities are sold, so it describes Treasury's own products.
TIPS · I bonds
MoneyHelper — ISAs, pensions and types of investment
Money and Pensions Service (UK government-backed)
Best for: How ISAs and pensions shelter investments from tax, the pension annual allowance, and the main asset types and their risks.
Who writes it: Money and Pensions Service, a UK government-backed body.
Caution: UK-specific products, tax wrappers and allowances, which change with each Budget. Little on building a multi-fund portfolio.
ISAs and other tax-efficient ways to save or invest · The annual allowance for tax relief on pension savings · Types of investments · Thinking about investing? Make sure you understand the risks
GOV.UK — ISAs, pension tax relief and Capital Gains Tax
UK Government (GOV.UK, with HM Revenue & Customs content)
Best for: The official ISA allowance and types, pension annual allowance and tax relief rules, and when Capital Gains Tax applies to selling investments.
Who writes it: The UK government's official information site.
Caution: UK-only rules; written as government guidance, not investment education.
Individual Savings Accounts (ISAs) · Tax on your private pension contributions: Annual allowance · Tax on your private pension contributions: Tax relief · Capital Gains Tax: what you pay it on, rates and allowances
Moneysmart — Diversification and super investment options
Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC)
Best for: How spreading money across shares, fixed income, property and cash reduces risk, how rebalancing works, and how super funds' growth, balanced and conservative options differ.
Who writes it: ASIC, Australia's corporate, markets and financial-services regulator.
Caution: Australia-specific (superannuation, Australian tax). Suggests a financial adviser as one way to build a diversified portfolio.
Investment diversification · Choose your investments · Super investment options
ATO — Super contribution caps
Australian Taxation Office (ATO)
Best for: The current caps on concessional (before-tax) and non-concessional (after-tax) contributions to super.
Who writes it: Australia's federal tax agency.
Caution: Australia-only tax rules; caps are indexed and change over time.
Concessional contributions cap · Non-concessional contributions cap
GetSmarterAboutMoney.ca — Building your investing strategy
Ontario Securities Commission (OSC)
Best for: Choosing an asset mix, writing an investment policy statement, rebalancing, how interest rates affect investments, and the differences between TFSAs, RRSPs and FHSAs, with historical charts of balanced portfolios.
Who writes it: Investor education team of the Ontario Securities Commission, a provincial securities regulator.
Caution: Canada-specific accounts (TFSA, RRSP, FHSA) and Canadian market data.
Choosing your asset mix as an investor · The benefits of re-balancing · How interest rates affect your investments · The top differences between TFSAs, RRSPs and FHSAs · Stocks vs Balanced Portfolio (chart)
Canada Revenue Agency — TFSA and RRSP limits
Canada Revenue Agency (Government of Canada)
Best for: How TFSA contribution room and the RRSP deduction limit are calculated, with the official yearly dollar limits.
Who writes it: Canada's federal tax agency.
Caution: Canada-only tax rules, written as tax guidance. Limits change each year.
Calculate your TFSA contribution room · How contributions affect your RRSP deduction limit · MP, DB, RRSP, DPSP, ALDA, TFSA limits, YMPE and the YAMPE
SEBI Investor Website — Asset allocation and fund types
Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI)
Best for: Indian investors' basics on goals, time horizon and risk before investing, how balanced (hybrid) funds mix equity and debt, and a booklet covering asset allocation, diversification, NPS and Section 80C.
Who writes it: India's securities-market regulator.
Caution: India-specific products and tax rules. The financial education booklet dates from 2020–21, so tax details may be out of date. The balanced-funds page contains a paragraph that appears to belong to a different page (on portfolio management services).
Factors to Consider Before Investing · Understanding Balanced Funds · Financial Education Booklet (PDF)
Sorted — Bonds, funds, property and KiwiSaver
Te Ara Ahunga Ora Retirement Commission (New Zealand)
Best for: New Zealand guides on how bonds work, investment funds, investing in property, and choosing a KiwiSaver fund type for your timeframe.
Who writes it: Te Ara Ahunga Ora Retirement Commission, a New Zealand Crown entity.
Caution: New Zealand-specific references (KiwiSaver, NZ tax).
Investing in bonds and how they work · Investment funds · Property investment · How to pick the right KiwiSaver fund for you
Inland Revenue — KiwiSaver
Inland Revenue (Te Tari Taake), New Zealand
Best for: The official rules on how KiwiSaver works, employee contribution rates, and the government contribution and how to qualify for it.
Who writes it: New Zealand's tax agency, which administers KiwiSaver.
Caution: New Zealand-only; written as tax and scheme guidance, not investment education. Contribution rules change from time to time.
How KiwiSaver works · Employee contributions · KiwiSaver benefits
Bogleheads wiki — Asset allocation
Bogleheads community (volunteer-edited wiki)
Best for: A detailed reference on splitting a portfolio between stocks, bonds and cash, rules of thumb, rebalancing and simple 'lazy' portfolios, plus a page written for investors outside the US.
Who writes it: Volunteer editors from the Bogleheads investor community.
Caution: Volunteer-written wiki; US-centric apart from the non-US page. Pages are dense once past the basics.
Asset allocation · Simple non-US portfolios
YouTube channels with credentialed presenters on building and running a portfolio, with their stated credentials and cautions. Each channel is rated from the videos of theirs we have scored; channels with fewer than 2 scored videos are marked not yet rated.
Not yet rated: none of their videos has been through our scoring yet.
Best for: Research-led walk-throughs of the big portfolio decisions: how much to hold in stocks versus bonds, whether to favour your home market, and how housing compares with shares.
Claim: CFA charterholder and CFP professional; portfolio manager at PWL Capital (Canada).
Caution: Canada-based; content is produced and owned by PWL Capital, the presenter's employer. Videos lean heavily on academic papers and can be dense.
Choosing an Asset Allocation (How Much in Stocks vs. Bonds?) · Is Home Country Bias a Mistake? · Housing: The Best Investment In History (On Paper)
Not yet rated: none of their videos has been through our scoring yet.
Best for: Data-heavy explainers on the moving parts of a portfolio: how bond funds behave, when to rebalance, and what gold and commodities add.
Claim: Ramin Nakisa, PhD (Imperial College London); worked in investment banking 2001–2016, including as a strategist.
Caution: UK-based. Sells memberships, courses and coaching. Some videos discuss market outlooks and the presenter's own portfolio choices.
Bond Funds - What You Need To Know · When To Rebalance Your Portfolio · Gold, Oil & Commodities: Is It Worth Investing?
Not yet rated: none of their videos has been through our scoring yet.
Best for: Clear introductions to stock analysis (what valuation multiples tell you, how an analyst researches a company) and to how rising rates affect bonds and other investments.
Claim: CFA charterholder and CFP professional (Richard Coffin), working as an analyst at an investment management company in Ottawa, per the channel description.
Caution: Takes sponsored segments (channel lists a sponsorship contact). Some explainers are several years old.
Stock Multiples: How to Tell When a Stock is Cheap/Expensive · How I Research Stocks - Step-by-Step Fundamental Analysis · What Rising Rates ACTUALLY Mean For Your Investments
Not yet rated: none of their videos has been through our scoring yet.
Best for: Free university lectures on reading financial statements and on what P/E ratios do and don't tell you, for those who want the full version rather than a summary.
Claim: Teaches corporate finance, valuation and investment philosophies at New York University's Stern School of Business, per the channel description.
Caution: Recorded classroom lectures: long, technical and US-focused (10-K filings). Several are over a decade old, though the concepts haven't changed.
Session 1: The Financial Statements - An Overview · Valuation Tools Webcast: Reading a 10K · Session 15: PE Ratios
Not yet rated: none of their videos has been through our scoring yet.
Best for: UK viewers deciding how to split saving between pensions and ISAs, how much investment risk to take, and how to choose funds inside those accounts.
Claim: Pete Matthew, Chartered and Certified Financial Planner; Managing Director of Jacksons Wealth Management (Cornwall, UK).
Caution: UK-centric (ISAs, pensions, UK tax). Run by a financial planner whose firm offers advice. The channel itself notes some older videos need updating.
Pension vs ISA - Retirement Income Comparison · Practical Investment Risk Strategy · HOW To Choose Funds In Your Pension And ISA
Not yet rated: none of their videos has been through our scoring yet.
Best for: US investors working through bond basics, spreading a portfolio across several account types, and rebalancing when stocks and bonds fall together.
Claim: Former securities lawyer; founding editor of Forbes Money Advisor; author of Retire Before Mom and Dad. No professional finance designation listed.
Caution: US-centric (401(k), IRA). His site earns commissions from partner offers. Some titles are deliberately provocative; one pick is a live Q&A recording.
Bond Investing 101--A Beginner's Guide to Bonds · How to Invest When You Have Multiple Investment Accounts · How to Rebalance When Stocks and Bonds Are Both Down | Live Q&A
Not yet rated: none of their videos has been through our scoring yet.
Best for: Full-length conference talks on setting an asset allocation, investing tax-efficiently across accounts, and building TIPS ladders.
Claim: Official channel of the Bogleheads investor community; speakers vary by session (here Christine Benz, Mike Piper and Kevin Esler).
Caution: Conference recordings: long, with variable audio and slides. US-centric. Speakers' views are their own, and some work in the financial industry.
Bogleheads University 101 2023 - Setting Your Asset Allocation with Christine Benz · Bogleheads University 101 2023 - Minimizing Taxes on Your Investments with Mike Piper · TIPS Ladders with Kevin Esler
Not yet rated: none of their videos has been through our scoring yet.
Best for: Indian investors setting an equity/fixed-income split, rebalancing on a rule, and getting started with debt mutual funds.
Claim: Dr M. Pattabiraman (PhD), associate professor at IIT Madras; runs freefincal.com.
Caution: India-specific (mutual funds, Indian tax). The associated site sells courses and a paid planning tool. Some videos are several years old and predate tax changes.
How much should I invest in equity and how much in fixed income? Asset Allocation 101 · How to rebalance your portfolio? A guide · How to start investing in debt mutual funds – a primer
What the research found on stock/bond mixes, bonds, global diversification, fees, rebalancing, property and stock picking (38 sources). Several findings come from fund managers or index providers (for example Vanguard, Morningstar and MSCI); we say where. Contested findings are shown both ways. General information, not financial advice.
Choose your stock/bond mixEvidence: Industry or index-provider data
How far each stock/bond mix has fallen in its worst year
From 1928 to 2025, the worst calendar year was -43.3% for 100% stocks, -39.2% for 90/10, -35.1% for 80/20, -26.9% for 60/40, -22.8% for 50/50 and -12.9% for 100% bonds. Average yearly returns over the same span ran from 11.8% (100% stocks) and 11.1% (90/10) to 9.1% (60/40) and 5.2% (100% bonds).
Limits: Published by a fund manager (Vanguard), using index data from Morningstar to 31 December 2025. Calendar-year losses understate peak-to-trough falls inside a year. Stocks are all-US until 1969, then 60% US/40% international; bonds are all-US until 1990, then 70% US/30% hedged international. Index returns, with no fees or taxes. Past results don't predict future ones.
Vanguard 2026, Vanguard, Investment portfolios: Asset allocation models (chart: Range of calendar year returns, 1928–2025)
Choose your stock/bond mixEvidence: Cohort or observational study
Stocks over 30 years: a real chance of losing to inflation
Using stock-market data from 39 developed countries between 1841 and 2019, the authors estimate a 12% chance that a diversified stock investor with a 30-year horizon ends up behind inflation.
Limits: A bootstrap simulation built from the historical record of many countries, including markets that did badly, so it is less US-centric than most long-run studies. Covers stocks only; it does not test stock/bond mixes.
Anarkulova, Cederburg & O'Doherty 2022, Journal of Financial Economics
Choose your stock/bond mixEvidence: Cohort or observational study
Target-date funds changed how 401(k) savers were invested
Target-date fund assets in US corporate retirement plans grew from $5 billion in 2000 to $734 billion in 2018. When plans added these funds, members' equity shares and bond exposures rose, holdings of cash and employer stock fell, and stock-specific risk dropped. The authors estimate low-cost target-date funds could raise retirement wealth by as much as 50% over 30 years.
Limits: US workplace plans only, using Vanguard recordkeeping data. One author (Utkus) was head of investor research at Vanguard, a large target-date provider, as the paper discloses. The 50% figure is a model estimate, not an observed outcome.
Mitchell & Utkus 2022, Journal of Pension Economics and Finance · Mitchell & Utkus 2020, NBER Working Paper 26684
Choose your stock/bond mixEvidence: Theory or logical argument
Your future pay acts like a bond holding
In a calibrated life-cycle model, steady labour income substitutes for safe assets, so the model's optimal share in stocks starts high and roughly declines over life. Ignoring labour income altogether carried large welfare costs in the model.
Limits: A theoretical model, not observed investor outcomes. In the model, ignoring how risky income is mattered far less than ignoring income altogether, except when a disastrous income shock was allowed.
Cocco, Gomes & Maenhout 2005, Review of Financial Studies
Choose your stock/bond mixEvidence: Cohort or observational study
Employer shares double up on job risk, and savers chase past returns
About a third of the assets in large US retirement plans were in the employer's own stock. Staff at firms with the worst 10-year stock performance put 10.37% of their discretionary contributions into company stock, against 39.70% at firms with the best performance, yet those allocations did not predict future returns.
Limits: US retirement plans, data from before 2001. Later evidence (Mitchell & Utkus, above) found target-date fund adoption cut company-stock holdings. Shows how pay and portfolio can end up tied to the same company.
Benartzi 2001, Journal of Finance
Understand bonds and cashEvidence: Expert consensus or guideline
Bond prices fall when rates rise, more so for longer bonds
In the SEC's example, a 10-year Treasury with a 3% coupon bought at $1,000 would be worth about $925 a year later if market rates rose to 4%, and about $1,082 if they fell to 2%. FINRA's rule of thumb: a bond with a duration of 10 loses roughly 10% for each 1-percentage-point rise in rates.
Limits: Regulator worked examples and a rule of thumb, not a study. Duration is an approximation that works best for small rate changes. A bond held to maturity still repays its face value, assuming the issuer doesn't default.
SEC Office of Investor Education and Advocacy, Investor Bulletin: Fixed Income Investments — When Interest Rates Go Up, Prices of Fixed-Rate Bonds Fall · FINRA, Brush Up on Bonds: Interest Rate Changes and Duration
Understand bonds and cashEvidence: Cohort or observational study
Why stocks and bonds fell together in 2022
The correlation between US stock and government bond returns turned positive in mid-2021 and stayed positive, the first prolonged positive spell since the 1980s and early 1990s. The BIS links this to high, volatile inflation: inflation surprises push bond prices down and also hurt stocks through expected rate rises. An earlier model-based study likewise found US Treasuries moved with stocks in 1979–2001 and against them in 2001–2011.
Limits: US data. The BIS piece is a short analytical box, not a peer-reviewed paper. The stock–bond relationship has changed sign before and may change again; neither source forecasts it.
Lombardi & Sushko 2023, BIS Quarterly Review, December 2023 (Box A) · Campbell, Pflueger & Viceira 2020, Journal of Political Economy
Understand bonds and cashEvidence: Cohort or observational study
Inflation-linked bonds: real protection, but prices still swing
In the US and UK, long-term real interest rates on inflation-linked government bonds fell sharply from the 1990s until 2008, then spiked during the 2008 financial crisis. The authors conclude that low yields and high short-term price volatility don't undo the basic case for these bonds as a safe asset for long-term investors.
Limits: US (TIPS) and UK (index-linked gilts) markets up to 2009. The protection applies to holding to maturity; anyone selling early takes the market price, which can fall.
Campbell, Shiller & Viceira 2009, NBER Working Paper 15014 (also Brookings Papers on Economic Activity)
Diversify globallyEvidence: Industry or index-provider data
Home markets are a small share of the world, but investors hold mostly home shares
At 30 September 2026, the US made up 64.21% of the MSCI ACWI global stock index, Japan 5.2%, Taiwan 3.46%, the UK 3% and Canada 2.9%. Yet at the end of 1989, Japanese investors held more than 98% of their equities at home, US investors 94% and UK investors 82%.
Limits: Index weights come from an index provider (MSCI), cover large and mid caps in 23 developed and 24 emerging markets (about 85% of investable stocks), and shift as prices move. The home-bias figures date from the end of 1989; home bias has since fallen but not disappeared.
MSCI 2026, MSCI ACWI Index (USD) factsheet, 30 September 2026 · French & Poterba 1991, American Economic Review (Papers & Proceedings); NBER Working Paper 3609
Diversify globallyEvidence: Cohort or observational study
Global diversification fails in crashes but works over long periods
Markets do become more correlated in short crashes, so international diversification gives little protection in a sudden panic. Over longer horizons, though, each country's own economic growth matters more than short-lived panics, and spreading across countries protected investors well against prolonged bad outcomes in any one market.
Limits: All three authors work at AQR Capital Management, a fund manager. The abstract states the conclusion qualitatively; see the paper for country data and periods.
Asness, Israelov & Liew 2011, Financial Analysts Journal
Diversify globallyEvidence: Cohort or observational study
Currency hedging: near-full for bonds, less clear for shares
From 1975 to 2005, the US dollar (especially against the Canadian dollar), the euro and the Swiss franc tended to rise when world stock markets fell, so leaving some exposure to those currencies reduced risk for global equity investors. For global bond investors, the lowest-risk approach was close to a full currency hedge.
Limits: Studies risk minimisation, not returns, over 1975–2005. Which currencies cushion a fall depends on the investor's home currency; the paper found little evidence for changing hedges in response to interest-rate differences.
Campbell, Serfaty-de Medeiros & Viceira 2010, Journal of Finance · Campbell, Serfaty-de Medeiros & Viceira 2007, NBER Working Paper 13088
Build the portfolioEvidence: Industry or index-provider data
What fund investors pay: index funds cost a fraction of active funds
The asset-weighted average expense ratio across US mutual funds and ETFs fell to 0.32% in 2025, from 0.80% in 2006. In 2025 it was 0.09% for broad index funds, 0.16% for strategic-beta funds and 0.57% for actively managed funds. ETF fees averaged about half of mutual fund fees.
Limits: US funds only; published by a commercial research firm (Morningstar) that also sells fund data and indexes. Expense ratios exclude trading costs, adviser fees and platform fees, and fees elsewhere (e.g. Australia, UK, India) differ.
Morningstar 2026, Morningstar Manager Research, 2026 US Fund Fee Study
Build the portfolioEvidence: Industry or index-provider data
Investors in all-in-one funds kept more of their returns
Over the 10 years to the end of 2025, investors in US allocation funds earned 92% of those funds' aggregate total returns, and US stock fund investors 97%. Municipal-bond, alternative and taxable-bond fund investors captured only 49%, 62% and 65%, because of the timing of their purchases and sales.
Limits: US funds; published by a commercial research firm (Morningstar). The report notes that results can hinge on where funds are used, for example a retirement-plan menu versus a brokerage account.
Ptak et al. 2026, Morningstar, Mind the Gap US 2026
Build the portfolioEvidence: Theory or logical argument
Asset location: bonds in tax-deferred accounts, but many households don't
A model of taxable and tax-deferred investing found a strong preference for holding taxable bonds in the tax-deferred account and equities in the taxable account. Yet in 1998 US survey data, many households with both kinds of account did the reverse; for nearly three quarters of them, moving less than $10,000 would have reached a tax-efficient arrangement.
Limits: US tax rules of the late 1990s and early 2000s. Later changes (lower US dividend tax rates, Roth accounts) and other countries' accounts, such as ISAs, TFSAs and super, change the arithmetic.
Dammon, Spatt & Zhang 2004, Journal of Finance · Bergstresser & Poterba 2004, Journal of Public Economics; NBER Working Paper 9268
Run it over timeEvidence: Industry or index-provider data
Rebalancing by threshold vs by calendar: small differences
In simulations of a global 60/40 portfolio, rebalancing only when the mix drifts 2 percentage points from target (back to 1.75 points) was expected to return 11–18 basis points a year more than monthly or quarterly rebalancing, mainly through lower trading costs. For target-date funds the expected benefit was 15–22 basis points a year versus monthly and 5–8 basis points versus quarterly during the saving years.
Limits: Published by a fund manager (Vanguard) that uses this method in its own target-date funds. Simulated, fund-level results with daily monitoring and institutional trading costs; individual investors face different costs and, outside tax-sheltered accounts, capital-gains tax.
Zhang et al. 2024, Vanguard Research, The rebalancing edge: Optimizing target-date fund rebalancing through threshold-based strategies
Run it over timeEvidence: Cohort or observational study
Tax-loss harvesting: about 1% a year in a US backtest
Applied to the 500 largest US stocks from 1926 to 2018, with long- and short-term capital-gains tax rates of 15% and 35%, a tax-loss-harvesting strategy produced a 'tax alpha' of 1.08% a year before transaction costs. Respecting the US wash-sale rule cut it to 0.82% a year.
Limits: A historical simulation under US tax rules, in taxable accounts only. Harvested losses usually lower the cost base, so part of the saving can be paid back when the holding is eventually sold. Results depend on tax rates, market path and costs. Co-author Andrew Lo founded AlphaSimplex Group, a fund manager.
Chaudhuri, Burnham & Lo 2020, Financial Analysts Journal
Property and other assetsEvidence: Cohort or observational study
Housing vs shares since 1870: similar returns, less volatility (national data)
Across 16 advanced economies from 1870 to 2015, housing and equities both returned about 7% a year after inflation. Housing returns were much less volatile (standard deviation 10% vs 22%), so compounded returns were higher for housing (6.6% vs 4.7%). Round-trip transaction costs averaged about 7.7% of a property's value in 13 of the 16 countries, cutting housing returns by less than 1 percentage point a year for a 10-year holding.
Limits: National housing indices with estimated rents, not individual properties: they don't capture single-property concentration, leverage, vacancies or the effort of being a landlord. Figures are from the NBER working-paper version (revised May 2019) of the published paper. Property-level data give lower returns (see next finding).
Jordà, Knoll, Kuvshinov, Schularick & Taylor 2019, Quarterly Journal of Economics · Jordà et al. 2019, NBER Working Paper 24112 (revised May 2019)
Property and other assetsEvidence: Cohort or observational study
Property-level records show lower real estate returns
Using property-level accounts of four large Oxford and Cambridge colleges from 1901 to 1983, real total returns after costs were about 2.3% a year for residential and 4.5% for agricultural property. Gross income yields started around 5%, and long-run real income growth was close to zero for all property types.
Limits: One kind of owner (large institutional landlords in England) over 1901–1983; may not represent other countries or recent decades. Contrasts with national-index estimates such as Jordà et al. (previous finding).
Chambers, Spaenjers & Steiner 2021, Review of Financial Studies
Property and other assetsEvidence: Cohort or observational study
Over long horizons, REITs behave more like property than like shares
Using sector-level data for the US, UK and Australia, long-run REIT performance was much more closely tied to the direct property market than to the general stock market. The authors conclude REITs and direct real estate are fairly good substitutes in a long-horizon portfolio.
Limits: The result concerns long-run co-movement. The paper models short-term movements separately and does not claim REITs avoid stock-market falls.
Hoesli & Oikarinen 2012, Journal of International Money and Finance
Property and other assetsEvidence: Cohort or observational study
Gold: a short-lived crash hedge, an unreliable inflation hedge
In US, UK and German data, gold was on average a hedge against stocks and a safe haven in extreme stock-market falls, but the safe-haven effect was short-lived. A separate study found gold hedges inflation only over centuries; over practical horizons it was unreliable, and periods with an above-average real gold price were followed by below-average real returns.
Limits: The two papers ask different questions (crash behaviour vs inflation protection) and support different roles for gold. Erb & Harvey's valuation point was made in 2012–2013, when the real gold price was historically high.
Baur & Lucey 2010, Financial Review · Erb & Harvey 2013, Financial Analysts Journal; NBER Working Paper 18706
Property and other assetsEvidence: Cohort or observational study
Commodity futures: equity-like returns, or close to zero?
An equally weighted index of commodity futures from 1959 to 2004 matched equities' return and Sharpe ratio while moving against stocks and bonds and with inflation; a 10-year follow-up found this largely held out of sample. A competing study found the average individual commodity future earned an excess return of about zero, with 'equity-like' returns coming mainly from a rebalanced portfolio.
Limits: Contested: the two camps differ on how much return to expect. Both study futures indices, not physical commodities or commodity-company shares, and index construction drives the results. Correlations with stocks rose temporarily in the 2008 crisis. The 2006 study was funded by AIG Financial Products, then a commodity-index sponsor; a co-author of the 2015 follow-up works at SummerHaven Investment Management, a commodity fund manager.
Gorton & Rouwenhorst 2006, Financial Analysts Journal; NBER Working Paper 10595 · Bhardwaj, Gorton & Rouwenhorst 2015, NBER Working Paper 21243 · Erb & Harvey 2006, Financial Analysts Journal
Stock-analysis basicsEvidence: Cohort or observational study
Most stocks worldwide lag cash; a few create all the wealth
Among more than 64,000 stocks worldwide from January 1990 to December 2020, 55.2% of US stocks and 57.4% of non-US stocks had lower compound returns than one-month US Treasury bills. The top-performing 2.4% of firms accounted for all of the $75.7 trillion in net global stock-market wealth created.
Limits: Describes individual stocks held for their full listed life, not diversified portfolios. An earlier US study (Bessembinder 2018, 1926–2016) found the same pattern. The point for portfolios is how easily a few holdings miss the rare big winners.
Bessembinder, Chen, Choi & Wei 2023, Financial Analysts Journal · Bessembinder 2018, Journal of Financial Economics
Stock-analysis basicsEvidence: Cohort or observational study
How many stocks make a diversified portfolio?
A well-diversified portfolio of randomly chosen stocks needed at least 30 stocks for an investor who borrows and 40 for one who lends, contradicting the common belief that about 10 stocks capture most of the benefit.
Limits: An older US study using a specific definition of 'well diversified'; the number depends on the period and the measure used. A broad index fund holds hundreds or thousands of stocks.
Statman 1987, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Stock-analysis basicsEvidence: Cohort or observational study
Individual stock traders as a group lose to institutions
Using the complete trading records of all investors in Taiwan, the aggregate portfolio of individual investors suffered a performance penalty of 3.8 percentage points a year, equal to 2.2% of Taiwan's GDP. Institutions gained 1.5 percentage points a year. Almost all individual losses came from aggressive orders.
Limits: One market (Taiwan) with very active retail trading. Measures trading losses in aggregate; some individuals do well.
Barber, Lee, Liu & Odean 2009, Review of Financial Studies
Stock-analysis basicsEvidence: Cohort or observational study
Starting valuations and 10-year returns: useful for expectations, poor for timing
Price-to-earnings and dividend ratios did poorly at forecasting earnings or dividend growth but were useful for forecasting long-run price changes (US 1871–2000; 12 countries since 1970). For the S&P 500 from 1926 to 2012, rolling decades starting in the cheapest tenth of Shiller P/E (5.2–9.6) averaged 10.3% a year after inflation; those starting in the most expensive tenth (25.1–46.1) averaged 0.5%, with a best case of 6.3%. But a broad test found return predictors, valuation ratios included, performed poorly out of sample and would not have helped investors time the market.
Limits: Contested. Asness, a fund manager at AQR, argues the Shiller P/E is meaningful for setting expectations but of 'very limited use for market timing'. Welch & Goyal find the forecasting record weak out of sample. Critics also point to small samples: overlapping 10-year windows contain far fewer independent periods than the table suggests.
Campbell & Shiller 2001, NBER Working Paper 8221 (update of Journal of Portfolio Management 1998) · Asness 2012, AQR Capital Management white paper, An Old Friend: The Stock Market's Shiller P/E · Welch & Goyal 2008, Review of Financial Studies